The new analysis indicates the fast consequences of climate change if people does not radically take action and reduce the pollution.
A terrible analysis, where assumed the rapid death of the world known to us already in the coming years, was published by the Australian analytical center Breakthrough National Center for Climate Restoration. There climate change is described as “a short-term or medium-term existential threat to human civilization.” It describes a likely scenario of events that can be realized within the next 30 years, provided that modern trends are preserved.
The document states that the potential “very serious consequences” of climate-related security threats are much more likely than they are believed to be. However, it is almost impossible to determine them absolutely, because they go “beyond the limits of human experience from the previous millennium.”
If people keep in acting as usual, “the planetary and human systems will reach a point of non-return in about the middle of this century, after which the transformation of the Earth into almost unsuitable for life will lead to the collapse of states and international order.”
The only way to avoid the risks of such a scenario, according to the authors of the report, is to “make an extraordinary mobilization of the scale like Second World War.” However, this time all efforts will be focused on the construction of an industrial system with zero emissions. Only then will the world be able to become a trajectory for the restoration of a safe climate.
The current trajectory is very likely to increase the average temperature on the planet by at least 3 degrees Celsius. And this, in turn, will increase the effects of warming. The collapse of key ecosystems will accelerate, “including coral reef systems, Amazon rainforests and Arctic systems.”
The consequences will be devastating. About a billion people will be forced to try to move from areas that are not suitable for life. Two billions will face a shortage of water. The agrarian sector in the subtropical zones will collapse. There will be a shortage of food throughout the world. The internal cohesion of national states is likely to collapse.
Commenting this report Alexandr Kamenets, the president of the Eastern European Association of the Greens, says that even if temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, more than a billion people will need to be relocated, in the worst case scenario.
The scale of destruction goes beyond our ability to simulate it. The end of human civilization is very likely “, – the report says. The authors of the document were David Spratt, Director of the Breakthrough National Center for Climate Restoration, and Ian Dunlop, former Royal Dutch Shell Executive Director.
In 2050 even under the worst scenario, the world will be in frank chaos. But declaring a state of emergency and global mobilization of resources can avoid that global decline.